Ouch! …for the Meantime

As I write this article, the Dow dipped below 10,000 and the S &P 500 is off more than 12% from its April 23rd high. Even so, we aren’t really surprised. Since the March 2009 lows we have experienced extraordinary gains in the markets with no real correction, which means it is well overdue. And when you factor in the Gulf oil spill, the financial stability of the PIGS, current wars, terrorists, and Korea, among others, it’s inevitable that volatility and selling pressure will exist in the markets.

The possibility of a continued bear market is unmistakably present due to world concerns; however, there are always concerns as you could see outlined in last week’s article, “76 Reasons Why Not to Invest in the Stock Market.” Additionally, there is a very different tone in our economic environment today than existed 2 years ago. The economy is undoubtedly improving, both here in the U.S. and other parts of the world, profits of corporations continue to strengthen and the sovereign debt European debt crisis is not a shocker, but expected.

This does not mean we expect to see a bull market run in the near future. It could happen, but ultimately the financial stability of the various European nations will need to pan out first and we can look for stability in the US markets or before any upswing. So what does it mean? “Opportunity!”

Remember, today is the first day of the rest of your life. How long will that be? 20 years? 30 years? Longer? John Keating once said, “I always think about the future because that is where I am living the rest of my life.” So the question is: What will the future bring? Here are just a few facts to ponder:

  • The top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010 did not exist in 2004.-Did you Know, YouTube
  • The number of Americans earning between $35,000 and $70,000 declined by 12% between 1980 and 2008, but the number of Americans earning over $105,000 increased by 14%. And over the past 10 years, 60% of Americans made more than $100,000 in at least one or two of those years –  and 40% had income that high for at least three.-Stephen  J. Rose, Rebound: Why America Will Emerge Stronger from the Financial Crisis
  • Over the next 40 years, there will be another 100 million Americans, and only a quarter of the 400-plus million of us will be over 60, compared to 31% in China and 41% in Japan.-Joel Kotkin, The Next Hundred Million
  • The US measures close to or at the top of nearly every measure of economic competitiveness. A 2008 Rand Corp. study found we lead the world in scientific and technological development, with one-third of the world’s research- and- development spending. As a result; the average American worker is ten times more productive than the average Chinese worker, a gap which will close but not go away in our lifetimes.-Joel Kotkin, The Next Hundred Million

So? “Opportunity!”

Just ask yourself if you believe there are good companies that will be successful in the future. If the answer is yes, remember this quote by Warren Buffet, the alleged greatest investor of all time, “Buy fear; sell greed.” Are people fearful today? Sure they are. Our disciplined investment process has positioned our clients to invest like Buffet and capitalize on this buying opportunity. After all, it is much better to be shouting, “Ouch!” today than at the top of the next bull market because we missed it.

The above commentary contains opinions that are provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the primary basis for an investment decision. You should consider your individual investment objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Not all strategies may be suitable for all investors.



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